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The Brode Report  |  December 2012

David Brode profile  

Hi,

I figured I’d take a break from the usual newsletter topics and go big picture as we close out the year.

Happy holidays!

David

 
 


I love working through complex corporate finance analyses; I'd be happy to leverage the
style of analysis that I applied here to your problem or project then

Call me at (303) 444-3300 or connect with me on
LinkedIn.

 

On Mary Meeker’s State of the Web

Mary Meeker has a long history as a stock analyst. After being a rockstar analyst with Morgan Stanley during the dotcom boom, she now hangs her hat with Kleiner Perkins. Recently, I saw her presentation on the state of the web. In short, I was astonished. Meeker has a way of describing the world that makes me realize how quickly the world is changing. Check out these images from her presentation that I expect will blow your mind.

One thesis I took from the full presentation was that computing has changed from something we do at a PC at home or the office to something done on a mobile phone or tablet and, increasingly, on the go using mobile networks.

1.

Operating Systems.
When I began working, Microsoft was in its ascendency and Apple was relegated to single digit market share.Recently I heard an author talking about Amazon’s impact on the economy and the three other most dynamic and important tech companies: Google, Facebook, and Apple. I noticed that Microsoft, the old juggernaut, being left off the list. I think this chart shows how the mighty have fallen. And it’s even worse: people may still use Windows as their OS, but spend their time in a Google Chrome browser using Gmail.

 

2.

Devices (Part 1):
The OS change has happened in part because we’re using different devices. You know how big a hit iPods were ten years ago? That’s nothing compared to iPad adoption:

 

3.

Devices (Part 2):
Surprisingly, unit shipments of smartphones and tablets exceeded those of PCs fully two years ago. Now, the forecast is that by Q2 2013 the installed base of smartphones and tablets will exceed the installed base of PCs.

 

4.

Mobility rules in subscriber lines, and has for over ten years already:

 

5.

And the Internet is increasingly accessed via mobile devices. Meeker shows show in India the mobile web traffic already exceeds the desktop web traffic. Globally, Internet traffic has skyrocketed in the past three years:

So with all that going on, imagine what 2013 and beyond will bring! Wishing you all a joyous holiday season and a happy new year!

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